Mike Smith
10 hours ago
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When most market participants are firmly expecting Bitcoin to go above $120,000, Ledn's Chief Investment Officer John Glover cools down the fervor. Having studied the completed fifth Elliott wave, the expert warns that the rising cycle is over, and a bearish phase is ahead, which could drag the price to $70,000-80,000. He notes that the failure under $108,000 confirmed the breakdown of the impulse, and a series of unsuccessful attempts to consolidate above $125,000 became the “last nail” in the bullish construction.
Glover's scenario is based on the classic pattern: the peak comes 12-18 months after the halving, and the current cycle fits into the historical geometry. The analyst believes that the market will spend the rest of 2026 in correction, gradually clearing overheated positions. As an early indicator, he cites the premium on protective put contracts with expiry in the fall of 2026 - it is already overtaking the cost of calls, which is a signal that sentiment is shifting towards insurance.
Michael van de Poppe, senior strategist at Galaxy Research, opposes him. He sees a “deep breath” phase, not the end of the cycle, and points to stable inflows into spot ETFs and shrinking supply on miners' wallets. If Bitcoin holds above $110,000 through the end of November, he says, the window to $140,000 will open again. However, even van de Poppe admits that a loss of the $105,000 level would reinforce the bearish case and force institutional investors to temporarily step aside.
Amberdata chief economist Lin Zhou is also on the skeptics' side. She draws attention to the performance of the MVRV ratio, which fell below 1.5 for the first time since February. “Historically, such values have foreshadowed prolonged periods of sideways or declines,” Zhou says, adding that investors have moved into a phase of “preserving” accumulated profits.
The technical picture supports the contradiction of opinions: the ascending channel from December 2024 has been broken downward, but the volume of decline looks modest, which leaves the chance of a false exit. The key boundary of $102,500-103,000 coincides with the zone of large derivative bets and will be a litmus test of the bulls' strength. As the price clings to $111,000-112,000, both sides are gathering arguments and each new statement of experts is immediately reflected in the candles.
At the same time, the interest in long strike options is growing: the demand for contracts with the rate of $150,000 in December 2026 is neighboring with the purchase of insurance puts at $60,000. The amplitude of expectations draws a chart of uncertainty, where any macro signal can become a trigger for a sharp movement.
