Mike Smith
Feb 14
The chances that Bitcoin will reach the $125,000 mark by mid-2025 continue to grow. According to the research department of Deribit, the probability of this scenario has increased from 41.9% to 44.4%. At the same time, the risk of BTC falling to $75,000 by June has decreased from 17.8% to 12.1%.
Despite the positive forecasts, some experts are more cautious. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes warns of a possible rollback of the cryptocurrency to the $70,000–$75,000 range, which could lead to short-term turbulence in financial markets.
The last time Bitcoin traded around $75,000 was in early November 2024, when the rapid growth of the digital asset coincided with political events. This rally led to BTC breaking the psychologically important $100,000 barrier on December 5.
In January 2025, a few days before a major political event, Bitcoin briefly reached an all-time high of $109,000, but since February 7, its rate has stabilized below $100,000. At the time of writing, BTC is trading at $96,750.
Leading analysts continue to revise their long-term forecasts. Thus, in December, the VanEck management company said that the current bullish trend will reach a "medium-term peak" in the first quarter of 2025. However, further scenarios remain open: the BTC rate is expected to exceed $180,000 by the end of the year.
