Mike Smith
5 days ago
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In the middle of the halving cycle, Bitcoin is showing signs of preparing for a powerful price breakout. Trading around $80,460 at the time of publication, the major cryptocurrency is showing moderate daily gains despite a 4.47% decline for the week.
The current period - about seven months post-halving - has historically preceded large-scale bull rallies. Analysts are closely monitoring this pattern, expecting Bitcoin to not only test, but break previous record highs in the near future.
Stock-to-Flow model creator PlanB continues to push for an ambitious forecast: over $500,000 by the end of 2025. His model is based on asset scarcity and time horizon analysis. According to S2F's visualisation, Bitcoin is poised to overcome key historical resistance in the $60,000-100,000 range, underpinned by solid long-term support.
The market is also showing a notable shift in the perception of traditional cryptocurrency cycles. According to a survey conducted by Bitcoin Archive, nearly half of participants doubt the relevance of the classic four-year pattern in today's market dynamics.
This view is echoed by analyst Chris Berniske, noting that the cryptoasset market is moving beyond fixed patterns. According to him, blockchain technology is increasingly becoming the backbone of digital infrastructure, which is radically changing investor behaviour and the structure of expectations.
The emergence of ETFs on Bitcoin and Ethereum (and possibly Solana in the near future) is attracting institutional capital that can stabilise the market at higher price levels. According to Berniske, the extreme 85-95% corrections that characterised previous cycles are becoming less likely for leading digital assets.
Bitcoin's 200-week simple moving average at around the $40,000 level continues to serve as a reliable indicator of long-term support. It forms cyclical lows with drawdowns of around 60% - significantly shallower than past cycles.
A favourable regulatory environment in the US could be the basis for a new ‘Goldilocks era’ in digital assets - a period of sustained growth with moderate volatility and stable returns. Experts expect that the coming years may become the most mature in the history of the crypto market.
