Mike Smith
9 days ago
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The Ethereum exchange rate continues to decline, and analysts are increasingly talking about the possibility of reaching a price bottom around $1,000. Cointelegraph researchers conducted a comparative analysis of the current state of the market with previous large-scale corrections - in 2018 and 2022. In their opinion, a number of indicators signal the approach to the critical mark, which in the past has already become a turning point.
The main argument of specialists is the behaviour of key onchain indicators. In particular, they focus on the relative strength indicator (RSI), which indicates a weakening of the buying momentum. Last December, Ethereum peaked at $4095, but RSI, contrary to the price growth, recorded a lower maximum. Such a divergence is traditionally interpreted as a harbinger of a correction - and this time it was confirmed. The price has already broken through the level of 1.0 on the Fibonacci scale, which corresponds to the mark of about $1550, and currently trades near $1500.
Analysts note that a similar pattern was observed in previous periods of decline. In all cases, the decline took place in several waves, with the final formation of the bottom occurring near the levels of 0.618-0.786 Fibonacci. In current realities it corresponds to the range between $990 and $1,240. The weekly RSI, meanwhile, is still holding above the critical 30-point mark, which, according to experts, leaves room for further declines before possible stabilisation.
The unrealised profit/loss (NUPL) metric acts as an additional indicator. According to Cointelegraph, Ethereum is now in the so-called ‘capitulation’ phase, a period in which most asset holders record losses or continue to hold coins in the negative. Such a state, according to historical data, often coincides with the formation of a local bottom in the market.
CryptoQuant adds that general activity in the Ethereum network also plays an important role in the current decline. The decline in transaction load and interest in network-based protocols exacerbates the pressure on the price, depriving the asset of short-term support from retail and institutional investors.
