Mike Smith
17 hours ago
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The beginning of 2026 on the BTC market looked like a neat restart: after a nervous end to December, investors returned to US spot funds on Bitcoin and contributed about $1.17 billion in a few days. But the momentum proved fragile. Total withdrawals exceeded $1.13 billion, almost wiping out early inflows and reminding us that big money now operates without romance — only discipline and risk management.
The dynamics of Ether products confirm that this is not a one-off story: about $258 million left ETH funds after small replenishments in January. This is a clear signal for the market — participants are ready to enter, but are not prepared to endure uncertainty for long.
The significance of the reversal lies not so much in the numbers as in the behavior. The first wave of purchases resembles a tactical bet on the “January effect” and a restoration of risk appetite. This was followed by rapid profit-taking and a reduction in exposure when sentiment became less confident. Such maneuvers reveal a new norm: BTC is increasingly being treated as a regular portfolio instrument rather than a long-term manifesto. Judging by the monitoring of flows, enthusiasm peaked in July 2025: Bitcoin funds raised over $6 billion in a month, and Ether products raised over $5 billion. Then the cooling began, and in November, an estimated $3.48 billion was withdrawn from Bitcoin ETFs. This is an important detail — the market has learned to quickly reduce risk, even when the infrastructure becomes more convenient.
The context reinforces the picture. October saw a sharp correction, accompanied by liquidations of approximately $20 billion and a noticeable decline in leverage. At the time, it looked like a controlled unloading, but the consequences were long-lasting: decisions became more pragmatic, and the willingness to hold positions declined. Hence the January “stress test”: funds are flowing in, but any doubt quickly turns into withdrawals. The logic of institutional investors is also changing. Instead of a “buy and hold” approach, the focus is on speed, reporting, and compliance with limits. Fund flows are becoming a barometer that treasuries, risk committees, and managers read daily. If inflows are stable, the share is increased. If withdrawals begin, the position is cut without argument or emotion.
The coming weeks will add fuel to these fluctuations: discussions of new rules for the industry and procedural votes in the US are keeping attention at the negotiating table. Against this backdrop, the market will reward not loud forecasts, but those who know how to write scenarios in advance, lock in profits, and return to the asset only under clear conditions.
