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Bitcoin's network hashrate fell to 684.48 EH/s on June 25, the weakest since mid-October last year. Since the beginning of the week, computing power has decreased by about a third due to a sharp rise in operating costs: miners' energy costs increased by more than 34% in the second quarter, and equipment maintenance costs rose along with them. At the same price of electricity, the profitability of large farms approached zero, forcing some operators to temporarily shut down ASIC parks.
Even after the hashrate correction, the network remains secure: the current level is more than double the milestone of summer 2023, when there were only 379.55 EH/s in circulation. Nevertheless, the decline in computing power signals a cleanup of the market from inefficient players and frees up a niche for low-cost operators. The situation may be reversed by another complexity adjustment scheduled for June 29: CoinWarz calculations point to an expected drop in the metric by about 9.37%, to 114.40 T. A similar load shifting last year quickly brought hardware with a better energy efficiency profile back online, which kept the blockchain stable.
The short-term catalyst for the decline was not just expensive energy. Some mining centers are participating in grid programs to reduce load: operators receive compensation for fast unloading of local power grids during peak hours. At the same time, the factor of climatic and geopolitical risks has intensified: volatility in fuel prices and disruptions in equipment supplies are pushing companies to pause in capacity expansion.
Despite the hash rate drawdown, BTC is holding at $106,000, helped by a steady inflow of funds into spot ETFs. BlackRock's flagship fund has accumulated assets of over $70 billion, reinforcing the perception of Bitcoin as a protective asset. For miners, this is important: a stable market makes it easier to calculate ROI after June's block reward cut. Against the backdrop of falling output of new coins - less than 450 BTC per day - even a moderate increase in demand can quickly restore mining profitability.
However, not all analysts are confident in a cloudless scenario. If the hashrate continues to fall and the difficulty adjustment proves insufficient to compensate, some companies may start selling off reserves, increasing the pressure on the price. The Fed's monetary policy will remain an additional trigger: rising government bond yields make cryptoassets less attractive to institutionalizers, which means the industry's baby will have to prove its resilience to macro shocks once again.